INGEMAR NÅSELL
	"DESTOBIO 2000" August 23-27, 2000 West Lafayette, Indiana, USA

"Deterministic and Stochastic Models of Endemic Infections: A Comparison."

ABSTRACT: Remarkable differences exist between endemic SIS and SIR models with demography. Thus, while deterministic approximations of fully stochastic SIS models are entirely acceptable, the corresponding approximations of SIR models are unacceptable. This recent result is added to the fact that the combined phenomena of recurrence and extinction associated with endemic SIR models require stochastic analysis. The deterministic models with chaos that have been advanced for measles are also ruled out as unacceptable. The claim by Bartlett (1956) that these phenomena have a stochastic origin is restored. These stochastic model results are based on the concept of quasi-stationarity of Markov chains with absorbing states.

The main conference page

The Department of Mathematics at Purdue

Purdue University Campus Map

hits since 4/14/00.